Publications of Idrisova, A.

Idrisova A, Anthony BP. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity and its implications for protected areas management. In: Principles of Environmental Policy: Local, European and Global Perspectives. Pskov: Pskov State University; 2018. p. 219-62.

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity and its implications for protected areas management

Climate change is an unequivocal global phenomenon that has many negative consequences and can become the dominant direct driver for the loss of biodiversity. Its impacts on species and ecosystems have already been observed worldwide and vary from species phenological changes, to shifts in their geographical distribution and to extinction. Species adaptive responses, in turn, pose various challenges for adequate management of protected areas that play a key role in biodiversity conservation, and require review of conservation goals and implementation of adaptation measures. This chapter focuses on Tajikistan, a mountainous country with unique biodiversity, and explores climate change impacts on the biodiversity of one of the most vulnerable reserves rich in biodiversity – Dashtidjum Zakaznik. The current and potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of the zakaznik have been analyzed following the DPSIR approach and based on current knowledge, experts’ assumptions and observations. An analysis of meteorological data from 1961-2008 has confirmed an increase of mean temperatures and anomalies in precipitation. The main factors of climate change impacts, as well as species vulnerability and adaptive responses, have been identified for the main taxa of flora and fauna, with a focus on rare and endangered species, and represented ecosystems. A vulnerability assessment has shown (i) potential population decline for the majority of species important for conservation, (ii) migration of some species northwards outside the zakaznik, (iii) extirpation of some species, and (iv) increases in population sizes for other species, mainly those that are invasive. An assessment of national policies and strategies has identified a number of prerequisites for the implementation of adaptation measures that may mitigate climate change impacts on the biodiversity of Dashtidjum Zakaznik. They include expansion of the protected area, and establishment of buffer zones and migration corridors.