Publications of Goldthau, A.
A Liberal Actor in A Realist World: The EU Regulatory State and the Global Political Economy of Energy
Since 1992, the European Union has put liberalisation at the core of its energy policy agenda. This aspiration was very much in line with an international political economy driven by the neo-liberal (Washington) consensus. The central challenge for the EU is that the energy world has changed, while the EU has not. The rise of Asian energy consumers (China and India), more assertive energy producers (Russia), and the threat of climate change have securitized the IPE of energy, and turned it more 'realist'. The main research question is therefore: 'What does a liberal actor do in a realist world?' The overall answer as far as the EU is concerned is that it approaches energy challenges as a problem of market failure: imperfect competition on the supply side; inadequate supply of public goods on the demand side and in terms of infrastructure; and large externalities that arise both from non-energy events and from large-scale consumption of fossil fuels. A Liberal Actor in a Realist World assesses the changing nature of the global political economy of energy and the European Union's response, and the external dimension of the regulatory state. The book concludes that the EU's soft power has a hard edge, which is derived primarily from its regulatory power. This works best when it targets companies rather than governments, and it is more effective in the 'Near Abroad' than at the global level. This makes the EU emerge an actor in its own right in the global political economy of energy - a 'Regulatory Power Europe'.
The Global Energy Challenge Environment, Development and Security
The Global Energy Challenge provides a comprehensive overview of today’s three most topical energy challenges, or the “energy trilemma”: climate change, energy poverty and energy security. The book addresses the rise of energy geopolitics and the related concerns surrounding “energy weapons” and the “race for resources.” Also discussed is the appropriate role of markets, the subject of a debate that has divided advocates and critics of free market solutions to energy problems. The prospect of a low-carbon transition is analyzed in the context of inertia in the energy system and of debates on the role of technology and innovation in addressing energy problems. The book also considers shifts in global energy governance, such as the emergence of new global institutions, and the role of non-state actors, including business interests, in confronting energy challenges.
The Russian Energy Outlook
This AEI, report titled “Too much energy? Asia at 2030″ strives to shed light on these uncertainties with the aim of providing realistic scenarios for the global energy outlook to 2030. The report’s Russia chapter finds that Russia will remain one of the world’s top energy producers and exporters, but its energy future will hinge on several factors outside of Moscow’s control, including Western energy sanctions and European regulations. Should Europe shift away from dependence on Russian energy, the Kremlin will feel more pressure to court China.
Addressing the Russian Energy Challenge: Why Regulation Trumps Geopolitics
Europe’s dependence on Russian gas has raised security concerns, especially in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. But this threat is overestimated. The truth is that the EU market, a large market with relatively high prices, is very important for Gazprom. What is more, Europe’s regulatory apparatus is well-equipped to deal with market power and discriminatory pricing, which is at the core of the real problem Russian gas poses to Europe. Making necessary infrastructure investments to connect still partitioned national gas markets, completing the single market for energy in order to enhance resilience against external shocks, and further empowering the Commission — the EU’s competition watchdog — to comprehensively govern the EU energy market will alleviate the valid security concerns and force Russia to play by European rules. This needs to take priority in the proposed Energy Union. Because the EU is much better at regulatory politics than at playing geopolitics, it should push the former and abstain from the latter, particularly in the case of Russian gas.
Sorting fact from fiction on Europe’s shale gas ‘bonanza’
Not all EU countries are giving a green light for shale gas exploration and ‘fracking’. Andreas Goldthau sounds a note of caution for those pressing ahead and hoping for a North American style energy boom.
Rethinking the governance of energy infrastructure: Scale, decentralization and polycentrism
Providing societies with reliable energy services, fighting energy poverty and mitigating climate change entail a crucial infrastructure component. Both the energy access and the low carbon challenge require more decentralized energy solutions and a change in the energy infrastructure paradigm. Yet, physical energy infrastructure co-evolves with socio-economic institutions, actors and social norms. This may produce inertia against change. The energy challenge also requires solutions at multiple scales and may entail elements of common pool resource problems. Therefore, the governance of energy infrastructure needs to be polycentric. This allows for contextualization, experimentation and innovation. The article concludes by sketching routes of further research into the energy infrastructure governance nexus in social science research.
Escaping the Valley of Death? Comparing shale gas technology prospects to nuclear and solar in Europe
Shale gas developments in the USA have led to a hype about the energy security prospects for other world regions, eager to replicate the American success story. In Europe, shale gas developments have remained in their infancy. As we argue in this piece, it is likely that this situation will continue and the shale gas ‘revolution’ is one that remains restricted. We compare shale gas technology to solar and nuclear, each at the time coined a game changer for energy security, and hyped as key to a sustainable energy future. We argue that shale gas perceived as an unproven and risky technology, fails to surpass essential policy, industry and social barriers required for a new energy technology innovation to succeed.
A liberal actor in a realist world? The Commission and the external dimension of the single market for energy
This article investigates the European Commission's external energy policy through the lens of the regulatory state. It argues that because of the nature of its institutions, policy tools and resources, the Commission remains a liberal actor even as the world leaves the benign pro-market environment of the 1990s and becomes more mercantilist – or ‘realist’. The article tests seven hypotheses related to two key challenges as perceived by the Commission: building energy markets, and making them work. It finds that the Commission seeks to project the single market beyond its jurisdiction to deal with transit infrastructure problems; extend international regimes to cover energy trade; deal with monopolists such as Gazprom through classical competition policy; and fix global energy market failures with clear regulatory state tools. Importantly, however, some actions by the Commission can be seen as an attempt to counterbalance external actors, or as second-best efforts to address energy market failures.
Governance of Unconventional Gas in Bulgaria: From Exploration to Bust
The story of Bulgarian shale gas exemplifies the difficulty for the unconventional gas industry to take a hold in Europe. This paper investigates the reasons for Bulgaria banning shale gas by disentangling the various domestic causes at work. We find the failure of shale gas exploration to progress in Bulgaria is attributed to two main drivers: material factors such as the government's interest in staying in power; and process related drivers, notably a highly centralized politically controlled decision making structure and a flawed policy process.
The 2014 Ukraine-Russia crisis: Implications for energy markets and scholarship
While the 2014 Ukrainian crisis is far from over, policy debates surrounding the standoff between Russia and the United States and Europe already offer some important lessons on the gap between the policy world and the realities of energy markets. In this communication, we will discuss three policy proposals proposed between February and April 2014 as an illustration of the aforementioned mismatch, and explain their broader implications. As we will show, while the energy world is entering the next phase with renewed emphasis on renewables and energy efficiency, and markets for energy becoming increasingly global and interconnected, a substantial number of politicians and foreign policy makers seem to be stuck in a Cold War paradigm. Though things do not necessarily bode well from a political standpoint, the observed tendencies may offer intriguing opportunities for research related to energy policy far beyond the traditional realms of economics and geopolitics.
The Ukraine Challenge and Europe's Energy Needs Collide
The crisis in Ukraine is the most severe security challenge in Europe after the Cold War. Energy has featured prominently in public debates surrounding the conflict. Yet, energy-market realities hinder some of the political preferences that currently feature prominently in the hallways of European capital cities. European policy makers should therefore push for separating energy from hard security issues in this conflict.
Sieg der EU über Moskaus Pipeline-Politik
Die Bürokraten haben Putin in die Knie gezwungen, nicht die Diplomaten Der Kreml hat South Stream gestoppt, eines der wichtigsten Gas-Infrastrukturprojekte und Kernpunkt der russischen Pipeline-Diplomatie. Dies ist ein Erfolg europäischer Energie-Außenpolitik, und dieser ist in Brüssel zu verorten. Nun ist klar: Europas Antwort auf Russlands Energie-Geopolitik liegt in der Binnenmarktregulierung
The EU's Soft Power with a Hard Edge in Energy: Implications for EU Policy Strategy and Energy Security
The biggest energy policy challenge that the European Union faces besides climate change is security of supply. Policy recommendations on EU energy security commonly either invoke the need for more EU hard power – such as stronger external energy policy, a tougher stance towards Russia, stronger “pipeline diplomacy” with alternative suppliers of oil and gas – or more attractive soft power – primarily a matter of improving the working of the single energy market and persuading non-EU states in the near abroad to adopt similar market-oriented regimes. This brief assesses the EU’s policy tools in the energy sector, and explores whether what might be labelled ‘soft power with a hard edge’ can amount to a consistent and realistic policy strategy.
Handbook of Global Energy Policy
This is the first handbook to provide a global policy perspective on energy, bringing together a diverse range of international energy issues in one volume. It maps the emerging field of global energy policy both for scholars and practitioners; the focus is on global issues, but it also explores the regional impact of international energy policies. It accounts for the multi-faceted nature of global energy policy challenges and broadens discussions of these beyond the prevalent debates about oil supply. It analyzes global energy policy challenges across the dimensions of markets, development, sustainability, and security, and identifies key global policy. challenges for the future. It comprises newly-commissioned research by an international team of scholars and energy policy practitioners.
Natural Gas Going Global? Potential and Pitfalls
This chapter discusses the political and economic drivers behind the current transition in international gas markets, and sketches both contingencies characterizing this process as well as possible future scenarios. It argues that reduced OECD demand and unconventional gas production in the U.S. have fundamentally impacted on traditional pricing models based on oil-pegged long term contracts, particularly in Europe. On the demand side China will have a crucial role to play in determining future pricing models, whereas on the supply side future strategies of Russia and Qatar will be of importance. In addition, political and regulatory gas market risks in the U.S. and Europe may impact on future pricing models. The chapter finds that in the short run consumers may benefits from the current transition due to enhanced competition and greater diversification of supplies. There however also is a looming risk of greater supply side collusion. i.e. a potential ‘gas cartel’ in which producers coordinate prices and volumes.
The politics of natural gas development in the European Union
Part of a study directed by the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, Harvard University’s Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Kennedy School and the University of California, Davis, Graduate School of Management.
A Public Policy Perspective on Global Energy Security
Despite an emerging literature on global energy governance, there so far is no extensive intellectual rationale for it. This article seeks to fill this gap by putting forward a public policy framework to analyze global energy. With that lens, energy security relates to problems of market failure at a transnational scale. These may occur due to imperfect competition; negative externalities; lack of information; or the presence of public goods. It is argued that major global energy risks such as oil price volatility, lack of transport infrastructure, and insufficient upstream investments can be convincingly conceptionalized as markets failing to provide for a crucial good—energy security. This article thus proposes market failure as an analytical justification of and as an intellectual foundation for further research in global energy governance, and sketches possible research agendas in that field.
From the State to the Market and Back. Policy Implications of Changing Energy Paradigms
Like almost no other sector, energy reflects changing paradigms. Following a statistic approach in which energy services were subject to public provision and administered by state companies, the free market paradigm took over in the 1980s and 1990s, making energy subject to private provision instead. More recently, the world has witnessed a new era of interventionism. Assessing these different phases, this article advances three arguments. First, paradigms matter in energy as they provide for crucial policy prescriptions. Second, agendas have become more complex, adding sustainability and energy poverty to traditional supply security. Third, paradigms are inextricably linked to rule-setting power, putting the non-OECD world in charge of defining the next paradigm. With regards to the latter, it is argued that it will likely be one characterised by fragmentation, with elements of state and market coexisting.
Why America Can Make or Break A New Global Gas World
America is the make or break nation to shift gas prices based on gas (rather than oil) fundamentals in the next ten years, but if we manage to get that far, be very careful what we wish for. Producer states could end up being the ultimate winners in a globalized gas world…
Special Section - Policy Agendas for the Future of Global Energy
Since energy has made it to the top of policy agendas, it has become subject to fierce debates between ‘marketers’ and ‘securitizers’. Market proponents tend to argue that energy is ‘just another commodity’ that’s traded on markets, with prices determined by supply and demand. Policy agendas should, therefore, focus on making markets work and at fixing market failures. Security proponents, by contrast, tend to view energy as a 'hard security' issue, and hence subject to geopolitical scheming. Energy policies should, in their view, be synchronized with foreign policy agendas. These debates on global energy miss out on three fronts. First, energy resources are more than ‘ordinary commodities’ or part of ‘capabilities’ in the neo-realist sense. They are of crucial importance to the welfare and economic development of countries and societies. In this, policy agendas based either on a purist security perspective or a neoliberal one obviously miss the target. Second, energy is increasingly recognized as being at the core of the climate change problem. The world’s transition towards a low carbon future therefore adds an additional layer of complexity to national and global energy policy making, putting in question the effectiveness of ‘classic’ policy toolboxes. Third, the rise of Developing Asia brings to the fore yet another policy challenge: access to affordable and reliable energy services. Challenges particularly arise from the energy demand side, as lifting some 20 percent of the world’s population out of energy poverty requires national and global energy systems to effectively respond to demand increments. Challenges also arise with regards to climate policy, as the consumption increment is not necessarily ‘green’. Universal energy access therefore requires holistic thinking across traditional policy fields. Policy agendas for the future of global energy need to account for these three factors. They need to embrace the intertwined challenges of a smooth transition into a low carbon future and of providing energy access for billions of people without compromising sustainability goals. Energy therefore is more than a commodity or a sector. It is a cross-cutting policy field. This Special Section departs from this finding. It aims at both offering an analytically rigorous assessment of the challenges facing global energy and sketching implications for energy policy agendas. Individual contributions in the section adopt a policy perspective focusing on selected key challenges by at the same time broadening discussions beyond the very policy field in which a given challenge occurs.
Assessing OPEC’s Performance in Global Energy
This article examines OPEC’s performance in regulating output and prices in the global oil market during its 50 years of existence. In addition, it discusses key trends that are likely to determine OPEC’s effectiveness in the years ahead, particularly climate change policies. We find that OPEC’s ability to control the oil market singlehandedly has historically been limited, as a result of both internal collective action problems and external factors such as the rise of new producers. Furthermore, we find that climate change policies may negatively impact long-term planning security for investment and hence OPEC’s ability to target price bands and smooth the oil market. We argue that OPEC will need to become more proactive in low-carbon policies to remain part of the decision making on future energy demand patterns that affects its main export product. We also submit that OPEC has a great role to play in fighting price volatility, a key concern for both producers and consumers, and that the best platform for enhanced efforts in this regard would probably be the International Energy Forum.
Global Energy Governance : The New Rules of the Game
The global market for oil and gas resources is rapidly changing. Three major trends – the rise of new consumers, the increasing influence of state players, and concerns about climate change – are combining to challenge existing regulatory structures, many of which have been in place for a half-century. "Global Energy Governance" analyzes the energy market from an institutionalist perspective and offers practical policy recommendations to deal with these new challenges. Much of the existing discourse on energy governance deals with hard security issues but neglects the challenges to global governance. "Global Energy Governance" fills this gap with perspectives on how regulatory institutions can ensure reliable sources of energy, evaluate financial risk, and provide emergency response mechanisms to deal with interruptions in supply. The authors bring together decisionmakers from industry, government, and civil society in order to address two central questions: What are the current practices of existing institutions governing global oil and gas on financial markets? How do these institutions need to adapt in order to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century? The resulting governance-oriented analysis of the three interlocking trends also provides the basis for policy recommendations to improve global regulation.
Die OPEC. Macht und Ohnmacht des Ölkartells
Nur wenige internationale Organisationen haben es zu einem so hohen Bekanntheitsgrad gebracht wie die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Staaten, kurz OPEC. Sie ist nahezu ein Synonym für das Ölzeitalter, sie ist das Paradebeispiel eines Kartells und fasziniert durch den unermesslichen und zur Schau gestellten Reichtum ihrer prominentesten Vertreter - der Ölscheichs. Im Jahr 2010 wird die OPEC 50 Jahre alt. Aus diesem Anlass beleuchten die Autoren Andreas Goldthau und Jan Martin Witte kritisch die spannende und von Höhen und Tiefen geprägte Geschichte der OPEC und machen sie einem breiten Publikum zugänglich. Welche Faktoren haben zur Gründung der OPEC geführt? Was sind die Ziele der OPEC, und wie funktioniert das Kartell im Inneren? Was beeinflusst die Effektivität der OPEC, und wann kann sie ihr Potenzial überhaupt ausspielen? Wie mächtig war die OPEC wirklich in den zurückliegenden 50 Jahren, und welchen Einfluss wird sie im 21. Jahrhundert haben? Goldthau und Witte beantworten diese und viele andere Fragen zur Geschichte der OPEC - um dann abschließend einen Blick in die Zukunft zu wagen: Welche Rolle wird die OPEC im Kontext des Klimawandels und des Wechsels zu erneuerbaren Energien noch spielen?
Imported Oil and U.S. National Security
In 2007, on a net basis, the United States imported 58 percent of the oil it consumed. This book critically evaluates commonly suggested links between these oil imports and U.S. national security. The major risk to the United States posed by reliance on oil is the economic costs of a major disruption in global oil supplies. On the other hand, the study found no evidence that oil exporters have been able to use embargoes or threats of embargoes to achieve key political and foreign policy goals. Oil revenues are irrelevant for terrorist groups' ability to launch attacks. The study also assesses the economic, political, and military costs and benefits of potential policies to alleviate challenges to U.S. national security linked to imported oil.
Back to the future or forward to the past? : strengthening markets and rules for effective global energy governance
Current public policy debates on energy security are characterized by a singular focus on questions regarding access to resources. This lopsided attention to the geopolitical dimension of energy security is based on the myopic and erroneous presumption that global energy politics is necessarily a zero-sum game in which one country's energy security is another's lack thereof.In fact, debates deflect attention from the real issues that policy-makers should consider in their attempts to foster effective global energy governance-the central role increasingly international energy markets play in balancing demand and supply-and, even more importantly, the significance of the 'rules of the game' that structure these markets.This article makes a first attempt to apply a broader analytical lens by pointing out and analyzing the important role rules play in determining outcomes in international oil and gas markets; by examining how current trends are affecting the existing 'rules of the game'; and by highlighting consequences for public policy.
Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran : Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning
The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the degree to which it will have to prepare for a high-end future conflict against a powerful, well-armed opponent versus the so-called Long War against rogue nations and terrorist organizations. The answer depends to a large extent on the evolution of U.S. relations with China and Iran and the future of the United States itself. To help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid-, and far-term trends in the United States, China, and Iran might influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy's allocation of resources in particular, RAND examined emerging nonmilitary trends in each of the three countries. The authors investigated current and projected domestic developments in the areas of demographics, economics, energy consumption, the environment, and education. They also examined each country's relations with its so-called near abroad to determine how much of a challenge each of the three nations (plus Japan and Russia) will experience in their own immediate “neighborhoods.”The authors conclude that the Navy will have to balance its investment decisions around the following major findings: * There will be less tolerance for costly, “big-ticket” defense projects in the United States; the Navy's “blue-green” mix will be affected. * China will remain the Navy's greatest potential challenge, but Iran will continue to defy the United States in the Middle East. * Further cooperation with key allies in the Pacific and the Greater Middle East will be required, as will an enduring defense commitment in the Middle East.
Resurgent Russia? Rethinking Energy Inc.
By examining the five greatest "myths" on Russian energy, this article challenges some of the key assumptions underlying Western policy towards Russia. It reveals the limits of the prevalent argumentative lines on Russian energy, and offers an alternative explanation for some recent Russian policy choices. Finally, it draws some conclusions on foreign policy implications for the U.S. and the Western world.
Energy efficiency in Russia
Russia has enormous potential to increase its energy effi ciency. It suff ers from the lack of modern heating systemsin housing, outdated infrastructure and equipment in energy intensive industrial sectors, natural gasleaks from pipelines during transmission and distribution, and oil companies fl aring associated gas at theirwells. To address these problems, Russia should provide incentives to reduce fl aring, increase domestic pricesfor gas, breakup the Gazprom monopoly on the pipeline system, and improve the legal framework for internationalcooperation. Th e EU has only indirect levers on Russian domestic policy, so it should work to convinceRussia that reducing domestic demand serves both Russian and European interests, help Russia cashin on its effi ciency potential, and sponsor small-scale energy effi ciency projects that could encourage additionaleff orts at the grassroots level.
Gasproduzenten rücken zusammen – Der GECF-Gipfel in Katar und die Erfolgsaussichten einer »Gas-OPEC«
GECF’s Qatar Summit and the prospects of a “Gas OEC”