Publications of Duman, A.

Duman A, Duman A. Economic Inequality and Social Exclusion in Turkey. In: Income, wealth, consumption, wellbeing and inequality developments – The volume on Europe. Oxford University Press; in press/forthcoming.

Türkiye’de Emeğin Değişen Payı ve Gelir Dağılımı

Individual income distribution and associated social policies are commonly studied topics both for developed and developing countries. However, the relationship between functional and personal income distribution, the consequences for inequality and their development over time are not well researched in many cases like Turkey. While labour share in the country has rapidly fallen since 1990s with a slight recovery in mid-2000s, the individual distribution is claimed to be improving by official estimations over the entire period. The study first aims to examine how primary and secondary income distributions affect each other. Then, by looking at who receives labor and non-labor factor incomes, and by estimating Gini coefficients for each income category, the impact of functional income on overall inequality is analyzed in the paper. According to our findings, over the period under consideration, interest income and non-agricultural entrepreneurial income are concentrated more in the hands of the richest individuals. The effect of changes in the labor income is less clear in Turkey since it is a major source for all income brackets. In addition, the rise in the shares of interest and real estate incomes most adversely affect the individual income distribution, and heighten economic inequality.

Wage penalty for temporary workers in Turkey: Evidence from quantile regressions

The paper estimates the wage gap between the employees with different contract types in Turkey. We first employ a quantile regression method and then decompose wage differentials along the distribution. Our results indicate that nonpermanent contract holders are more common among the low‐skilled and low‐wage group. While there is a wage penalty for having temporary contracts at the bottom end of the distribution, nonpermanent workers at the upper end also suffer from a wage gap in Turkey. The findings imply a non‐monotone pattern in Turkey where both sticky floor and glass ceiling effects are observable. These effects are persistent over time as both bottom‐ and top‐earner temporary workers are penalized, and the wage gap displays almost no change for each group. Also, from the quantile decomposition, we revealed that wage gap for low earners can be mainly attributed to the labor market characteristics. On the other hand, returns are primarily responsible for explaining the wage gap for high earners suggesting that they are subject to unfavorable conditions in the labor market.

Education Mismatches in the Labor Markets and Their Impact on Wages across Sectors: evidence from Turkey

The incidence of mismatch and its pay effects vary not only across countries but also across sectors due to different institutional arrangements. The first aim of the paper is to estimate education mismatches in the Turkish labor market. Our second aim is to distinguish the impact of education mismatches on wages in public and private sectors. The results of the analysis show returns on overeducation are lower than required education in both sectors similar to many other country examples. Moreover, we also show that wage differences between overeducation and required education are smaller in the private sector, and through Oaxaca decomposition method most of it can be explained by endowments. Lastly, the effect of undereducation on wages differs across sectors and we conclude that human capital model is not applicable to Turkish public sector.

Türkiye’de Sendika Üyeliğinin Kamu ve Özel Sektördeki Ücretler Üzerindeki Etkileri

In the paper, the union wage premium in Turkey is analyzed by distinguishing the public and private sectors for the years 2002 and 2011. There are significant differences across sectors in terms of how the unions affect the earnings. Despite the low levels of unionization, the pay differential is considerable in Turkey, and the unionization has significantly higher effects in the private sector. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that endowment is more crucial for the wages in the private sector. We argue that firm heterogeneity and underlying employee characteristics lead to these differences in premiums. Even after controlling for these union premium remains to be significant in both sectors. Additionally, wage setting practices in the public and private sector are distinct as the former is more institutionalized and similar contractual terms can be applicable to non-unionized workers. In the private sector, on the other hand, the bargaining framework is decentralized and bilateral, which does not allow most of the benefits to be extended to nonmembers.

Öznel Sosyal Sınıflar ve Ekonomik Eşitsizlikler Hakkındaki Görüşler

The tolerance for economic inequalities displays remarkable differences among countries including Turkey. While in some countries the shifts in inequality are accepted more easily, in others the demand for redistributive policies went up rapidly. This study aims to examine the reasons for changing opinions on inequality among people even when there are no transformations in their economic positions. Besides economic, social, institutional and normative indicators the study shows that subjective class status is also explanatory for redistributive preferences. The study also found that in Turkey the share of people identifying themselves with middle class increased over time, which decreased the redistributive preferences in comparison to earlier periods.

Duman A. The Social Risk Mitigation Project (Turkey). In: and Directorate-General for Employment SAI(EC), Institute TÁRKISR, editors. Study on conditional cash transfers and their impact on children. Final report. Vol II. EU publications; 2014.

The Social Risk Mitigation Project (Turkey)

The aim of the case studies is to provide an in-depth analysis of specific programmes, and to highlight transferable approaches. We selected programmes for case studies in order to have a balance of various types of CCT programmes, and also to have a more or less balanced regional coverage. We only considered government run programmes that are nationally (or regionally) rolled out, so experimental programmes and NGO run programmes were not reviewed here. The following programmes were selected for in-depth study: Kindergarten Allowance (Hungary), Education Maintenance Allowance (UK), the School Allowance student support programme (Belgium), Child Allowance (Bulgaria) and the social risk mitigation project (Turkey).

Attitudes towards Hard Work and Redistributive Preferences in Developing Countries

Providing universal access to social protection and health systems for all members of society, including the poor and vulnerable, is increasingly considered crucial to international development debates. This is the first book to explore from an interdisciplinary and global perspective the reforms of social protection systems introduced in recent years by many governments of low and middle-income countries. Although a growing body of literature has been concerned with the design and impact of social protection, less attention has been directed towards analyzing and explaining these reform processes themselves. Through case studies of African, Asian, and Latin American countries, this book examines the ‘global phenomenon’ of recent social protection reforms in low and middle-income areas, and how it differs across countries both in terms of scope and speed of institutional change. Exploring the major domestic and international factors affecting the political feasibility of social protection reform, the book outlines the successes and failures of recent reform initiatives. This invaluable book combines contributions from both academics and practitioner experts to give students, researchers and practitioners in the fields of social security, economics, law and political science an in-depth understanding of political reform processes in developing countries.

Traditional Familialism Served with EU Gravy

The article examines the role of EU in shaping work-family reconciliation policies in Hungary between the 1990s and 2011. More specifically, it looks at how members of the Hungarian Parliament framed European requirements and/ or standards, and how they used references to European processes in their arguments. The article distinguishes three periods of Europeanization. In the first period, references made to the European Union were sporadic. The second period before 2004 was the period of legal harmonisation. Finally, in the third period after the 2004 accession, principles and processes of the European Union became important reference points in parliamentary debates. European jargon – including the reconciliation of work and family life – entered the vocabulary of members of the parliament, who have been using it as an important resource. Furthermore, the availability of European funding has been an important trigger of reforms. However, within this period, the principle of reconciliation was used very differently depending on the parties in government, drawing attention to strategic usages of European norms to serve party politics.

Beliefs, Volatility and Redistributive Preferences across Developing Countries

Beliefs about social competition affect redistributive demands and the responsibility assigned to government regarding public provisions. Given the strong link between beliefs and the extent of support for social protection, it is important to explain the cross‐country differences. The paper analyzes the factors that are crucial in explaining redistributive demands across developing countries with a special emphasis on beliefs about social competition. While ideas about luck versus effort in determining economic prospects are explanatory in every country, our findings also suggest that in societies with high economic volatility the role of beliefs is amplified. Vast fluctuations in economic performance fuel the opinion that economic failure is a result of systemic characteristics, and individuals are not necessarily held fully responsible for their material faiths in such settings. Therefore, government is assigned a greater role in basic provisioning.

Duman A. Household Debt in Turkey: the Critical Threshold for the Next Crisis. Izmir: 1st World Keynes Conference: Attacking the Citadel Conference Proceeding; 2013.
Duman A. Conditional Cash Transfers in Turkey: advantages and disadvantages. In: Basescu G, Pop D, editors. Education Policy and Equal Education Opportunities. New York: Open Society Foundations; 2012. p. 267-86.
Duman A. Impact of Trade Unions on Wage Inequality in Turkey. In: Karlson N, Lindberg H, editors. Labour Markets at a Crossroads. Newcastle upon Tyne: Cambridge Scholars Publishing; 2012. p. 181-204.

Impact of Trade Unions on Wage Inequality in Turkey

This paper systematically evaluates patterns of change in socio-economic models in Hungary and Slovakia, highlighting the role of state in the process. While the cases share general similarities in their type of capitalism, a closer overview of institutional domains reveals that important differences exist in critical junctures, character of change and the role of key actors. In terms of the overall reform paths, Slovakian path especially since the late 1990s stands out to be more coherent and is overwhelmingly in a liberal direction, while Hungarian reforms appear less radical and encompass liberal elements but active state involvement in most institutional domains as well. The key difference in industrial policy that we select as exemplary institutional domain is that Hungary adopted a more comprehensive and vertical industrial support geared towards upgrading and introduced relatively early schemes aimed at the development of domestic SME sector. The Slovakian state was initially more subject to pressures from the local business groups and only after the turning point in 1998 adopted foreigners-favored approach and developed its industry more through regulation than a direct intervention, neglecting any attempt to nurture domestic bourgeoisie.

Union Wage Premium and the Impact of Unions on Wage Inequality in Turkey

The European labour market models are at a crossroads. Almost all Western European countries have experienced a lack of job creation, productivity and growth for an extended period of time. There is a problem of unemployment overall, but most urgently for the young, for immigrants and for the disabled. There is a clear need for reform. This volume, Labour Markets at a Crossroads: Causes of Change, Challenges and Need to Reform, investigates a number of vital aspects of the European labour markets and the challenges they face. The chapters give new perspectives on how the different labour market models in Europe work, and what consequences they have. The contributing authors are academic scholars in economics, political science, sociology and economic history from a variety of European countries. The book is structured around three main themes: Flexicurity and Labour Market Dynamics Trade Unions and Industrial Action Wages and Bargaining A central conclusion made by the editors is that one of the main causes of the shortcomings of the European labour markets is the existence of what they call “corporative cartels.” Moreover, there are clear options for policy choice, both for legislators and the social partners themselves.

“The role of state in development of socioeconomic models in Hungary and Slovakia: the case of industrial policy

This contribution systematically evaluates patterns of change in socio-economic models in Hungary and Slovakia, highlighting the role of the state in the process. While the countries share general similarities in their type of capitalism, a closer overview of institutional domains reveals that important differences exist in the character of change and the role of key actors. In terms of the overall reform paths, Slovakia, especially since the late 1990s, is more coherent and overwhelmingly in a liberal direction, while Hungary appears less radical and encompasses a combination of liberal elements and active state involvement. In this contribution we focus on industrial policy and find that Hungary adopted more comprehensive and vertical industrial support geared towards upgrading, foreign-capital openness throughout the economy, and support of the domestic small and medium enterprise sector. Slovakia developed its industry more through regulation than a direct intervention, opened to foreign capital only in late 1990s, and since then eschewed any attempt to nurture domestic capital.

Duman A, Scharle A. Protecting the Unemployed in Hungary. In: Clasen J, Clegg D, editors. Regulating the Risk of Unemployment: national adaptations to post-industrial labour markets in Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2011. p. 232-54.

Protecting the Unemployed in Hungary

Hungarian labour market processes were dominated by the economic transition for most of the 1990s. The chapter first describes the labour market institutions and policies established in response to emerging unemployment in the early 1990s and then moves on to examine tendencies towards the homogenization of insured and means-tested unemployment benefits. The two schemes are found to have become similar in terms of benefit rates, mostly due to reductions in the amount of unemployment insurance, but not in terms of entitlement conditions and administration. Further integration has often featured in policy debates, but not in the actual design and implementation of employment policy. Rather than responding to structural changes or distortions in the labour market, policymaking has been largely dictated by the politically determined cycle of overspending and fiscal squeeze, and more specific short-term political aims, such as appeasing public discontent by regulating the ‘idle poor’.

Duman A, Scharle A. Fiscal Pressures and a Rising Resentment Against the (idle) Poor. In: Clasen J, Clegg D, editors. Regulating the Risk of Unemployment: national adaptations to post-industrial labour markets in Europe. Oxford University Press; 2011. p. 232-54.

Fiscal Pressures and a Rising Resentment Against the (idle) Poor

In recent decades, the share of service employment has increased greatly across Europe, fundamentally changing the structure of European labour markets and the nature of the economic risks that individual workers face. This book explores how far reforms to unemployment protection systems, which were introduced and consolidated in a very different labour market context, are responding to the particular challenges of post-industrial labour markets. It argues that adapting traditional systems of unemployment protection to the risk profiles of service-based economies requires a profound policy realignment, which can be summarized with reference to three overlapping processes of institutional change; the homogenization of unemployment benefit rights for different categories of the unemployed; the erosion of the institutional boundaries between benefit provisions for the unemployed and for other groups of working-age people reliant on state support; and the ever-closer operational integration of income maintenance policies and other forms of labour market support. Systematically comparing across twelve European welfare states over a period of twenty years, the book traces how these reform dynamics have played out in the context of political conflicts, institutional constraints, and changing macroeconomic conditions. While the book highlights that many differences continue to set the unemployment protection arrangements of different European countries apart, it also points to an emergent process of contingent convergence in conceptions of the risk of unemployment and of appropriate ways of regulating it.

Employee Welfare and Restructuring in Public Sectors: Evidence from Poland and Serbia

Labour in Central-Eastern Europe is widely regarded as a uniformly weak actor. We challenge this view, and explore the conditions under which CEE labour can play an active role in the welfare reform process. We draw on evidence from education and health care in Poland and Serbia, and show that public sector unions have largely retained their ability to prevent major restructuring and to defend employment-related privileges of their constituencies. The unions’ resilience is explained by the fact that the public sector in these countries remains sheltered from competitive pressures by delayed privatization, and by the extensive structural and associational power enjoyed by public sector employees.

Reconciliation of Work and Family Life in Hungary between 1990 and 2006

The paper analyses the ‘Europeanization’ of policies concerning the reconciliation of work and family life in Hungary between 1998 and 2005. It looks at how politicians – in government or in the opposition – framed European requirements and/or standards and how they used references to European processes in their arguments. The paper distinguished three periods of Europeanization. In the first period – in which the first comprehensive Family Support Act was adopted – basically no reference was made to the European Union. Accordingly, this Act – its goal being to protect the institution of the family to ensure demographic growth – did not prioritize reconciliation and women’ employment at all and was criticized of not being in line with European principles. The second period before 2004 was the period of legal harmonization. Therefore, reconciliation-related acts (e.g. ontelework) were mainly adopted as an answer to European expectations. Finally, in the third period after the 2004 accession, the reconciliation of work and family life became an explicit goal of the government, usually with references made to European processes and European principles. In this period, MPs started using the jargon of the EU. Furthermore, the availability of European funding was an important trigger of reconciliation-related reforms.

Familialism in Flux: role of Europe and Reconciliation in Hungary

The article analyses the Europeanisation of policies concerning the reconciliation of work and family life in Hungary from the 1990s to 2006 from a domestic actor-centred perspective. More specifically, it looks at how members of the Hungarian Parliament – from government and opposition parties – framed European requirements and/or standards and how they used references to European processes in their arguments. The article distinguishes three periods of Europeanisation. In the first period, references made to the European Union were sporadic. The second period, before 2004, was the period of legal harmonisation. Finally, in the third period, after the 2004 accession, the reconciliation of work and family life became an explicit goal of the government, usually with references made to European processes and European principles. Furthermore, the availability of European funding was an important trigger of reconciliation-related reforms. This analysis underlines the significance of using Europe for legitimating domestic policy changes going against the traditional family policy framework.

Female Education Inequality in Turkey: factors affecting girls’ schooling decisions

Education remains to be an important determinant of economic and social opportunities for individuals. However, within group inequalities for educational elements are not studied broadly. This paper seeks to inspect the reasons of higher inequality among females in terms of schooling distribution. Our results suggest that occupation of the household head, size and the composition of the family, and education of the parents have a significant impact on the schooling decision for girls. The paper will contribute to the literature in a twofold manner. First, it provides empirical evidence of schooling distribution in Turkey. Second, it investigates the factors that disproportionately affect schooling decisions for girls.

Female Education Inequality in Turkey : factors affecting girls’ schooling

This article was presented at the Spring Meeting of Young Economists, April 23-25, 2009, Istanbul.

Revitalization of the Trade Union Movement : examples from Poland and Serbia in Automobile and Public Sectors

This article was presented at the 7th ESPAnet conference, Urbino, 17-19 September 2009.

Preferences for unemployment insurance and labor-market risks : over-time developments in Germany and the United States

This article examines the relationship between labor-market risks and demand for social insurance. It looks at the over-time variations in preferences for unemployment insurance in Germany and the United States, and delineates the links with these and one's position in the labor market. The results suggest that rather than the type of human capital investment, occupational unemployment rate is explanatory for the demand for social insurance, along with income. Our analysis challenges the widespread association, in the literature, between higher specificity and higher social spending.

Obrazovanje i nejednakost dohotka u Turskoj : je li školovanje važno?

Education and Income Inequality in Turkey : Does Schooling Matter?

Does Schooling Matter: education and income inequality in Turkey?

The paper examines the link between educational variables and income inequality in Turkey. First, I evaluate the impact of educational level, then I move on to assess educational inequality and finally I consider educational spending by public and private sectors. I argue that due to the limited public spending on primary and secondary education and growing private spending, the spread between socio-economic groups will not be decreased significantly.

Duman A, Erkin HC, Unal FM. The Determinants of Capital Flight in Turkey, 1971-2000. In: Epstein GA, editor. Capital flight and capital controls in developing countries. Cheltenham: Elgar; 2005. p. 116-42.

Unemployment Compensation in Sweden, Germany and United Kingdom : is there a tendency towards marketisation?

This article was presented at the ESPAnet Young Researchers Workshop, April 1-2 2005, University of Bath.